Jamaal Franklin

       This years shooting guard crop is a bit difficult to ween.  Between Jamaal Franklin, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tony Snell, Glen Rice and Archie Goodwin, there are a lot of unknowns.
       First, the knuckleheads.
 
       KCP has some of the worst shot selection you've ever seen.  He's not just bad, he's JR Smith bad.  At times, he has no idea how much time is left on the shot clock, he doesn't care if he's well-defended, he doesn't want to run the play.  Although, he's got that knack of JR Smith to sometimes hit these extremely ill advised shots;  the familiar "No no no!  Yes yes yes!" that often leaves coaches shaking their heads.  Beyond the obvious problems with this approach, long rebounds are INSTANT DEATH for transition defense in the NBA.  These are much bigger, faster, stronger athletes and they're going to push that ball down your throat.
       KCP also has that fearlessness on the court that's idiosyncratic of his off court persona.  Basketball players with strong/expressive personalities seem to play the way they seem as people.  Stephen Jackson, Rasheed Wallace, JR Smith, KG, Carmelo.  Sure, everyone here might be "punks", but they make their presences known.
       Outside of character flaws (getting benched for the majority of his junior year before getting kicked off the team) associated with Glen Rice Jr, and the questionable motor/intangibles associated with these kinds of red flags, he looks like a sure bet.  He won the D-League MVP en-route to leading the Rio Grande Vipers to a championship, showcasing some serious athleticism and a shooting stroke reminiscent of his fathers.  Standing 6'5 with merely mortal physical attributes and athleticism that is great for the DLeague but average by NBA standards, the big question for me is how to gauge the competition he faced at this level.  Are DLeague players even on the same level as the ACC?  The jury is out.
       Tony Snell has the super long arms, and is a dead-eye shooter.  His problems are consistency, drive, and not playing up to his abilities.  The guy can handle the rock, run the offense, and at times dominate the competition (as evinced in this 13 point run he had against UNLV).

       While he's got the tools, the combination of attributes just reminds me too much of Carlos Delfino. Big, wiry shooters like this aren't hard to find though.  And the fact he's American probably helps distinguish him from Del3no.  A shooter with this type of wingspan is virtually unblockable, and a comparison who comes to mind immediately is Anthony Morrow.
       Goodwin's your bang/bust type of guy.  Think Alec Burks, Corey Brewer (although at the time he seemed like a sure thing, and he's finding his niche now), Nick Young (although he wasn't nearly as young coming out), Ronnie Brewer, JR Giddens, Brandon Rush, Martell Webster, Josh Childress.  Actually, the list is comparatively pretty short.   I hate taking the high potential guard, I'd rather waste the pick on a project big man.  To go off of the Alec Burks example, although the guy's been in the league a few years now he's still a bit of an enigma.  When there's nothing but pedigree and potential there, it's almost impossible what you're going to end up with in the long run.  He has no jumper, which isn't usually something that you can teach (I say usually).
       My money is on Jamaal Franklin.  Sharing the same team as Kawhi Leonard (who has the potential to be the SF version of Kenneth Faried), Franklin has a relentless motor, an advanced handle, and the ability to defend four positions.  His jumper is a work in progress, and he's more smooth than explosive,  but I look at the fact that he's a potential two way player who can already score at a decent clip and his size advantage for the position.  Goodwin definitely has more potential, and KCP or Rice are much sexier picks, but if we want a guy who's going to fit into a team system and help on both ends immediately the Bucks might want to go with Franklin.  However, rather than my "sure bet", this fella gets my "safe bet".
Edit:  This lil dunk by Jamaal Franklin has been going viral on Youtube today:

       However, on paper, how does this guy look any different than Allen Crabbe?  Best case scenario  Snell or Crabbe fall into the second round.  Tim Hardaway Jr., Nate Wolters and Ricky Ledo all have similar strengths as jack-of-all-trades types.
       I'm holding off on doing a mock until the draft lottery, but it looks like Schroeder's got a promise from the Mavs.  He bowed out of the combine due to a "tooth-ache"; other than a promise, what are some other potential meanings of this?
       However, in order of most talented, regardless of team drafting, it's gotta go something like this:
       1.) Nerlens Noel
       2.) Ben McLemore
       3.) Anthony Bennett
       4/5.) Victor Oladipo/Trey Burke (tend to like Oladipo better, sorry Trey)
       6.)  Otto Porter
       7.)  Alex Len (not getting nearly enough media, if you ask me.  Easily as gifted as Noel)
       8.) Rudy Gobert (due to his monstrous size and great fundamentals, there's no way he goes any lower than 8)
       9/10.)  C.J. McCollum/Cody Zeller (While Cody underwhelmed in the combine, it's inconceivable that he's not at least as good as his brother Tyler who impressed in his first year in Cleveland)
       11.)  Shabazz (Could he fall this far?  Could land anywhere in the 6/12 range)
       12.)  Schroeder
       13.)  Carter-Williams (big point guards are always intriguing, but how often do they pan out?)
       14/15.)  Mason Plumlee/Kelly Olynyk (A couple of stonecold unsexy picks.  Some fans are going to be disappointed on draft night)
       16.) ALL OF THE SHOOTING GUARDS and Gorgui Dieng.

       I realize how similar my list looks to the DX mock, but those guy are just spot on this year (and most years). 

Marko Todorovic

Today, I'm taking a swing at Marko Todorovic.

An international phenom with potentially legitimate size to bang inside, Marko is one of those project players whose success will depend largely on what situation he is drafted into.  There's a certain chicken and the egg dynamic with draft choices by the San Antonio Spurs;  are the players they draft really particularly skilled before they come to the NBA, or does being part of the arguably best coached team and constantly making deep runs in the playoffs help these players pan out?  Also, how little pressure is there for these players to turn out?  Anyway, a digression, as I'm watching the Spurs destroy the Warriors by sheer force of will in game 4 at the moment.

Aside from being a dead ringer for Justin Bieber, which may paint a big target on his back (or face) as he enters the league, Marko also speaks very little English at this point.  He's the kind of guy every bench deserves to have at the end.  You know, you've got Big Z and old Alonzo Mourning in foul trouble against Shaq, and boy do you wish you had Kyrylo Fesenko at the end of the bench to take a few slaps at him.

While there's very little on the kid to this point, available highlight videos are either more than a year old or curiously set to "private", a level of mystique around a second round pick is not a bad thing.  I always wonder what keeps less hyped picks (relatively unknown international players, college seniors) from purposely hurting their own stock to ensure they're drafted by a contender.  The fear would be not getting drafted at all, so this would require a lot of swag to pull off.  Probably terrible press for an agent.

Draft express has him listed third overall on their list of International players born in '92.  Is this a bad year for International scouting?  Or just that weak of a class?  Are foreign leagues flooded with washed up American players, and is it that much more competitive than previous years?  Or, another conspiracy theory, do foreign coaches understand that by giving these types of players limited time on the floor that they're contributing to their mystique?

I'll share this particularly unexciting video of Marko.  But seriously, I think I played against these guys at the YMCA last week.  Another smoke screen!  The flashy players are always going to get drafted higher.  A big man with athleticism is the highest potential boom/bust pick in the league.  For me?  Give me the meat and potatoes, blue collar grinder type who is going to use his fouls, make some dirty plays to attempt to level the playing field with more physically gifted types, and play within his limitations.

Not unlike my previous two picks, most of this is going off of my gut.  If you're going to reach into a box without seeing what's in there beforehand, I say you go big in the second round.  He's not going to be upset about playing time, considering he got none overseas, and sitting on the end of the bench he's going to be spending a lot of time learning English from the class clowns of the league (Sasha Vujacic, Drew Gooden, Bobby Simmons).

I'm not going to give him my "sure bet" sticker, because if he deserved that he wouldn't be in the second round.  I'm just saying, let's give the poor kid a chance.

-Justin

Solomon Hill

Hey again,

Today we're here to discuss Solomon Hill, a senior guard from Arizona.


He passed the three syllable test, so that's a start, although the track record of NBA players named Solomon is not-so-good:
(Solomon Alabi, another player named Solomon Jones and that's it)
Arizona players in the second rounders historically do better than first rounders, with later picks such Chase Budinger, Salim Stoudamire, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Kerr and to a lesser extent Marcus Williams having equal or greater success than stupid ugly Channing Frye, hideous Derrick Williams or little fathead Jerryd Bayless.

At first glance, Hill will remind you of Sam Young;  a rugged, big body SF/PF tweener with a passable jump-shot and ball handling that passes the first look test.  Careful when evaluating players based on highlights alone, or you (Mr. NBA GM) are going to end up drafting a lot of Joe Alexanders and Jan Veselys, and not enough Jimmy Butlers or Wesley Matthews (on a side note, can we please just take a flier on whatever Marquette guy is out there this year?)  However, immediately contradicting my previous sentence, Hill's highlights do demonstrate great athleticism to go along with his polished skill set (crappy quality video to the left).  He demonstrates good timing, and as Connor knows the one thing I look for more than anything else in a pick is
Body Control.

Some may argue hangtime is more important than vert, standing vert is more important than if you get a running start (getting on the trampoline), but what ties all these together is the ability to draw contact and finish in traffic.

Hill gets to the line on a respectable 37% of his possessions, rebounds well when he's playing the 2 or 3 (Arizona's influx of young guards relegated him to playing the 4 spot much of the season) and has shown great improvement as a perimeter player/distributor since his freshman campaign.  While he possesses the size to post-up smaller guards, even at the NBA level, his success really depends on his jump shot.

 A unique capability of our modern digital era is also the fact we can use Twitter to talk to these players directly:

We'll see how it goes.  There's my 3 guard.  Hurry up, guys, all of the good sleepers are going to be taken.

First post (Brandon Paul)

Greetings, strangers.  With the contributions of my associates, this blog is meant to help inform and entertain the general public about NBA basketball, general sports, random rants and need-to-know information from the opinions of those who count.  Think of it like a basketball-themed equivalent of Top Gear or Car Talk; we expect our readers to have no previous knowledge or interest in cars (basketball), but considering it's the only thing on in the hotel and it's three a.m., you're just going to have to read (watch) it.  I hope I didn't lose you already.  Let me drag you back in with a personal anecdote.

We're three old friends, myself:

And my basketball friends.  I like Snyder's Pretzels™, the trebuchet font, long walks on the beach, regular walks on the beach and embarrassing my friends.  Don't worry, that's all there is about me.  I'm moving on to real content in just a second, I promise.

Anyway, my favorite movies are anything with Tom Green, and my favorite band is White Rhino.

I don't know if you guys are going to agree with me, and I don't know if I agree with myself, but I'm going to pick a few sleepers for 2013's NBA draft.  Another thing you should know about us is that we're all Bucks fans; Connor is the pessimistic one; I consider myself the realistic one; and Jon is just happy when basketball is on TV.

The unique position we're in in this digital age allows me to contact the players who I'm going to be blogging about.  Draftexpress.com, if you have not seen it, is by far the best resource ever available for NBA Scouting.  The accounts are highly detailed and numerical, so if you're not a basketball nut like myself you're probably going to get bored trying to make heads or tails of anything.  While I admittedly will probably be getting the majority of my content from there, I'm going to make enough outrageous claims and wild assertions to inevitably haunt me in the near future and fight with my friends about.

In the interest of making outrageous claims, I'm going to call my outrageous claims "Sure Bets."  Though I'm sure you'll all immediately become familiar with my patented "Sure Bets" system, I'm going to break it down for you the first time around.  It goes like this:

No wait, I won't break it down.  I'll just show it to you in practice.  Prepare to be amazed.





Our target, receiving the inaugural "Justin's Sure Bets", is Brandon Paul, a third-year guard from Illinois.  While, admittedly, I never saw this guy play in the regular season (or maybe I did!  But I wasn't paying attention to him specifically), here are some strong points right away that you guys will have difficulty refuting:

1.  He's not related to Chris Paul, but kind of looks like Chris Paul.  That's gotta be....
           

<---- Wait a second, he was in jail already?  That's gotta explain why he's in the second round.

2.  The majority of NBA players have four-syllable names (you can quote me on this, I'll go through and count at some point.  Maybe tomorrow, we'll see), so that doesn't bode well for him either.  He could add his middle name, but considering I couldn't find that online and it could be two or even three syllables, this doesn't bode well for him either, either. (Note to self, at some point do a feature on the history of NBA players with three or more names (ie:  Jose Juan Barea, Juan Carlos Navarro, Chris Douglas-Roberts... ouch, this isn't looking good)


3.
   Looking at his career stats, taken from wikipedia, one can't help but notice that as he progressed in his      academic career, he also received more minutes from coach:

His subpar field-goal percentage could be attributed (not to make any excuses) to the loss of big man Meyers Leonard, and Illinois' subsequent reliance on him to take many more shots than he'd want to be taking (if he's smart, he'd understand taking more shots usually means you're taking WORSE shots.)

4. We can see from this picture of him with Illinois Head Coach Jon Groce that they were close, some                               may say so close that it makes you wonder what they're so close for.  He's not even talking in his ear.

It's always good to be taller than your coach.
Hopefully this carries on to the NBA, or NBDL
(Sorry Pat Ewing)

Why's Groce got his hand back there?  Maybe the problem was Groce, all along.








After-all, check out this guy's athleticism (ignore the charge):

When it comes down to it, let's just say I'm going off of my gut on this one.  These types of guys are a dime a dozen in the NBA; but you can't argue with the fact that there are a lot of them in the NBA.

I picked a particularly boring player to analyze for this inaugural post, believe me, I'm over here doing plenty of research and heavy reading, just not finding anything particularly interesting.  However, considering all of this research HAS made me the foremost expert on Brandon Paul, I'm going to go with my gut and say this kid is going to be good.  Let's wait until the combine next week and find out how right I am, guys.

-Justin